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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-36%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-crowned Night Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Black-crowned Night Heron In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±159.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.030.000.08
20250.030.000.08
20260.030.000.08
20270.030.000.08
20280.030.000.08

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FishvilleLOUISIANA22010
NatchezLOUISIANA22004
Chandler 2TEXAS22008
StampsARKANSAS12023
EastonLOUISIANA11970
De RidderLOUISIANA12011
Mer RougeLOUISIANA11998
LongstreetLOUISIANA11991
Burr FerryLOUISIANA12018
BlancoOKLAHOMA11974
IndianolaOKLAHOMA11996
Town BluffTEXAS11997
New WaverlyTEXAS11976
CrossroadsTEXAS12002
AthensTEXAS12008
ChandlerTEXAS12002
Smyrna 2TEXAS12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.