BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-59%Since 1969
21Routes In Region
29Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Black-crowned Night Heron has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±308%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029
0.08Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.3495% range
±308%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.080.000.33
20260.080.000.33
20270.080.000.34
20280.080.000.34
20290.080.000.34

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies.
CampbelltonTEXAS282004
WeatherfordTEXAS32024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA21985
BeggsOKLAHOMA21968
TatumsOKLAHOMA22021
Lone OakTEXAS21969
Oak GroveTEXAS21976
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12005
DuncanOKLAHOMA11994
Massey LakeTEXAS12016
OsageTEXAS12008
OlaTEXAS12004
DallasTEXAS12013
GrafordTEXAS11985
LydiaTEXAS12002
Miller GroveTEXAS12017
OlneyTEXAS12006
BonnerTEXAS12007
Wills PointTEXAS12006
GreenvilleTEXAS12014
DecaturTEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.