BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-59%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-crowned Night Heron has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-crowned Night Heron In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±308%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±308%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±308%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.33
20260.080.000.33
20270.080.000.34
20280.080.000.34
20290.080.000.34

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CampbelltonTEXAS282004
WeatherfordTEXAS32024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA21985
BeggsOKLAHOMA21968
TatumsOKLAHOMA22021
Lone OakTEXAS21969
Oak GroveTEXAS21976
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12005
DuncanOKLAHOMA11994
Massey LakeTEXAS12016
OsageTEXAS12008
OlaTEXAS12004
DallasTEXAS12013
GrafordTEXAS11985
LydiaTEXAS12002
Miller GroveTEXAS12017
OlneyTEXAS12006
BonnerTEXAS12007
Wills PointTEXAS12006
GreenvilleTEXAS12014
DecaturTEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.