BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-73%Since 1969
60Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Black-crowned Night Heron has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029
0.38Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.295% range
±93.7%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.400.001.2
20260.390.001.2
20270.390.001.2
20280.380.001.2
20290.380.001.2

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Prairie Potholes.
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA211999
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA172019
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA112015
HartlandMINNESOTA101967
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA82024
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA62021
TitonkaIOWA51984
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA52013
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA52021
GarnerIOWA41971
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA42009
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA42011
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA42008
TenneyMINNESOTA31990
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA32022
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA32004
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA32022
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA31997
ArlingtonMINNESOTA21996
GluekMINNESOTA21984
Big StoneMINNESOTA22008
Ester LakeMONTANA22019
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA21976
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA22024
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.