BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Great Basin has surged: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+202%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-chinned Hummingbird has surged in Great Basin: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.07–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.07–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.070.17
20260.120.070.17
20270.120.070.17
20280.120.070.17
20290.120.070.17

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magic MtnIDAHO82024
Ruby ValleyNEVADA41999
Hardware RanchUTAH42023
Cedar HillIDAHO32024
Comins LakeNEVADA32016
PendletonOREGON32024
NewcastleUTAH32021
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON32022
Fish CreekNEVADA22019
HikoNEVADA22022
Desert NwrNEVADA22018
DeltaUTAH22015
TonasketWASHINGTON22001
NighthawkWASHINGTON22023
Big PineCALIFORNIA12010
MacdoelCALIFORNIA11992
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA11974
BartleCALIFORNIA11990
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA11998
Iron GateCALIFORNIA12013
GiffordIDAHO12009
TriangleIDAHO12006
Pasadena ValIDAHO12016
JoelIDAHO12023
Silver CityIDAHO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.