BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Great Basin has surged: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+216%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.13 (95% range 0.08–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.13 (95% range 0.08–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.070.17
20270.120.070.17
20280.120.070.17
20290.130.070.17
20300.130.080.18

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magic MtnIDAHO102025
Ruby ValleyNEVADA41999
Hardware RanchUTAH42023
Cedar HillIDAHO32024
Comins LakeNEVADA32016
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON32022
Fish CreekNEVADA22019
HikoNEVADA22022
Desert NwrNEVADA22018
DeltaUTAH22015
TonasketWASHINGTON22001
NighthawkWASHINGTON22023
Big PineCALIFORNIA12010
MacdoelCALIFORNIA11992
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA11974
BartleCALIFORNIA11990
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA11998
Iron GateCALIFORNIA12013
GiffordIDAHO12009
TriangleIDAHO12006
Pasadena ValIDAHO12016
JoelIDAHO12023
Silver CityIDAHO12024
PrestonIDAHO12014
Piute MdwsNEVADA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.