BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsForest birds

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+14%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 212% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.01–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+212%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±165.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 212% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.01–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.000.55
20270.280.000.56
20280.280.000.56
20290.280.010.56
20300.280.010.56

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CatarinaTEXAS21988
SejitaTEXAS21994
Agua NuevaTEXAS11990
KingsvilleTEXAS12023
George WestTEXAS12009
La PryorTEXAS12010
HondoTEXAS12025
El IndioTEXAS11994
El SauzTEXAS12008
Catarina 3TEXAS12023
MillettTEXAS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.