BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+65%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-chinned Hummingbird has risen sharply in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 15% by 2028 — from 0.35 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.03–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 15% by 2028 — from 0.35 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.03–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.290.020.56
20250.290.020.57
20260.300.020.57
20270.300.030.57
20280.300.030.57

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HondoTEXAS42023
CatarinaTEXAS21988
SejitaTEXAS21994
Agua NuevaTEXAS11990
KingsvilleTEXAS12023
George WestTEXAS12009
La PryorTEXAS12010
El IndioTEXAS11994
El SauzTEXAS12008
Catarina 3TEXAS12023
MillettTEXAS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.