BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Chihuahuan Desert has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.58 (95% range 0.06–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.58 (95% range 0.06–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.041.1
20260.570.051.1
20270.580.051.1
20280.580.051.1
20290.580.061.1

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MesillaNEW-MEXICO132000
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO52019
Red RockNEW-MEXICO42024
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO42024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO32016
PresidioTEXAS32013
Ft. DavisTEXAS32022
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO22024
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO21982
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO22023
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO22006
ShafterTEXAS21983
SlaughterTEXAS22014
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS22008
CanutilloTEXAS22024
Chisos BasinTEXAS22017
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO11977
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12021
GageNEW-MEXICO12016
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12024
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO11989
RodeoNEW-MEXICO11974
PinonNEW-MEXICO12017
QueenNEW-MEXICO12012
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.