BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-77%Since 1970
27Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Black-chinned Hummingbird has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029
0.55Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.595% range
±52.8%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.610.001.6
20260.590.001.6
20270.580.001.6
20280.560.001.5
20290.550.001.5

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Mormon LakeARIZONA41974
Skull ValleyARIZONA42015
PomereneARIZONA32024
PatagoniaARIZONA32024
CutterARIZONA32014
RuckerARIZONA32009
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO32023
PrescottARIZONA22019
Forest LakesARIZONA22024
RedingtonARIZONA22021
McnealARIZONA22021
Clay SpringARIZONA22014
PortalARIZONA22022
DragoonARIZONA22009
Aztec PeakARIZONA11978
San SimonARIZONA12023
Peña BlancaARIZONA12009
SunizonaARIZONA11996
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12017
PinetopARIZONA12021
Bartlett ResARIZONA12023
AmadoARIZONA12021
SahuaritaARIZONA12019
Carr MtnARIZONA12024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.