BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-chinned Hummingbird has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.600.001.6
20270.580.001.6
20280.570.001.5
20290.560.001.5
20300.540.001.5

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA62025
Mormon LakeARIZONA41974
Skull ValleyARIZONA42015
PomereneARIZONA32025
CutterARIZONA32014
Clay SpringARIZONA32025
RuckerARIZONA32009
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO32023
PrescottARIZONA22019
Forest LakesARIZONA22025
RedingtonARIZONA22021
SahuaritaARIZONA22025
McnealARIZONA22021
DragoonARIZONA22009
Aztec PeakARIZONA11978
San SimonARIZONA12023
Peña BlancaARIZONA12009
PatagoniaARIZONA12025
SunizonaARIZONA11996
PinetopARIZONA12021
Bartlett ResARIZONA12023
AmadoARIZONA12021
Carr MtnARIZONA12024
PortalARIZONA12025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.