BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-20%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±296.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±296.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±296.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.32
20260.150.000.32
20270.150.000.32
20280.150.000.32
20290.150.000.32

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter 2ARIZONA42018
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA42000
Cabeza PrietARIZONA32023
NelsonNEVADA32009
OatmanARIZONA22003
Cibola LakeARIZONA22019
Palo VerdeARIZONA22011
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA22017
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA22021
OnyxCALIFORNIA21994
InyokernCALIFORNIA21991
BlytheCALIFORNIA21979
Val Of FireNEVADA22011
Jean LakeNEVADA22009
QuartzsiteARIZONA11997
VicksburgARIZONA11983
FlorenceARIZONA11974
LagunaARIZONA11978
AjoARIZONA12000
RivieraARIZONA12016
Alamo Res.ARIZONA12024
ArabyARIZONA12005
Casa GrandeARIZONA12017
Organ PipeARIZONA11990
Bates WellARIZONA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.