BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Coastal California has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-44%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Coastal California is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±349.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±349.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Coastal California is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±349.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.59
20260.280.000.59
20270.280.000.59
20280.280.000.59
20290.280.000.59

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PenningtonCALIFORNIA82015
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA72024
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA42014
OrovilleCALIFORNIA42024
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA32013
Cleveland NfCALIFORNIA31999
GravesboroCALIFORNIA21986
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA21993
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA21995
San YsidroCALIFORNIA21990
OrlandCALIFORNIA22022
Sawmill MtnCALIFORNIA22014
TujungaCALIFORNIA22015
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA21981
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA21996
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA21987
AnzaCALIFORNIA21995
SangerCALIFORNIA22014
WestleyCALIFORNIA22023
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA22013
Red BluffCALIFORNIA12019
RumseyCALIFORNIA11978
CollegevilleCALIFORNIA11985
HughsonCALIFORNIA12012
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA11983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.