BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 329% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+329%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-chinned Hummingbird has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 329% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.07–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±243.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±243.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.07–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±243.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.060.29
20260.180.060.29
20270.180.070.29
20280.180.070.30
20290.180.070.30

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shields 2TEXAS52023
HawleyTEXAS42013
Pear ValleyTEXAS32023
EldoradoTEXAS32023
ArapahoOKLAHOMA22012
WinchellTEXAS22021
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA12000
GrimesOKLAHOMA12014
CoopertonOKLAHOMA12022
SicklesOKLAHOMA12012
WoodwardOKLAHOMA12024
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA12021
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA12022
MertzonTEXAS12019
RotanTEXAS12023
HaskellTEXAS11996
WallTEXAS12022
SilverTEXAS12019
CharlieTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.