BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+264%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 118% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.07–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±257.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+118%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±257.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 118% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.07–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±257.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.050.29
20270.170.060.29
20280.170.060.29
20290.180.060.29
20300.180.070.30

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HawleyTEXAS42013
EldoradoTEXAS32023
ArapahoOKLAHOMA22012
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA22025
Pear ValleyTEXAS22025
WinchellTEXAS22021
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA12000
GrimesOKLAHOMA12014
CoopertonOKLAHOMA12022
SicklesOKLAHOMA12012
WoodwardOKLAHOMA12024
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA12025
MertzonTEXAS12019
RotanTEXAS12023
HaskellTEXAS11996
WallTEXAS12022
SilverTEXAS12019
CharlieTEXAS12023
Shields 2TEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.