BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-64%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-chinned Hummingbird has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.09
20260.030.000.09
20270.030.000.09
20280.030.000.09
20290.030.000.09

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PostTEXAS32019
KermitTEXAS31994
FarleyNEW-MEXICO22024
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO21974
Mica ButteCOLORADO11987
VillegreenCOLORADO12017
Cone MtnCOLORADO12008
NinaviewCOLORADO12015
ElbertCOLORADO12021
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO12016
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO12011
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO12021
SedanNEW-MEXICO12011
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12012
PepNEW-MEXICO12014
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO12015
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO12011
FeltOKLAHOMA12018
RankinTEXAS11975
LamesaTEXAS12019
PlainsTEXAS12015
CircleTEXAS12019
FloydadaTEXAS12006
Frankel CityTEXAS11994
DoughertyTEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.