BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.23–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.23–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.210.60
20260.410.210.60
20270.410.220.61
20280.420.220.61
20290.420.230.62

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH72023
Baxter PassCOLORADO52016
Moon Lake 2UTAH52021
ToroweapARIZONA42019
La PlataNEW-MEXICO42013
Moon LakeUTAH42003
HannaUTAH42024
The GapARIZONA31969
RosevaleCOLORADO32024
Animas 2COLORADO32018
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO32022
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO31997
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO32021
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO32016
NotomUTAH32024
Main CanyonUTAH32018
GooseberryUTAH32022
ShivwitzUTAH32023
FerronUTAH32017
Alton 2UTAH32024
House RockARIZONA21968
Rose WellsARIZONA21969
HuntARIZONA22006
FalfaCOLORADO22024
CortezCOLORADO22008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.