BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Great Basin has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+22%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Great Basin is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.22–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Great Basin is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.22–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.740.221.3
20260.740.221.3
20270.740.221.3
20280.740.221.3
20290.740.221.3

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeavenworthWASHINGTON202024
TwispWASHINGTON182024
KendallWASHINGTON172024
Barnes ValOREGON131984
SnowdenWASHINGTON132024
NighthawkWASHINGTON132024
Mt HoodOREGON102024
IndexWASHINGTON101970
TonasketWASHINGTON102018
SelahWASHINGTON82012
Hardware RanchUTAH72023
EightmileOREGON61992
BlyOREGON61994
Badger CreekOREGON62002
IndexWASHINGTON61997
ReardanWASHINGTON52024
MaldenWASHINGTON52024
MazamaWASHINGTON52022
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON52024
WaitsburgWASHINGTON52004
PaisleyOREGON42001
NewhalemWASHINGTON42023
ArdenvoirWASHINGTON41987
Iron GateCALIFORNIA32019
GiffordIDAHO32017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.