BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Great Basin has held roughly steady: down 0% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-0%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Great Basin is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 0.65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.22–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Great Basin is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 0.65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.22–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.730.221.3
20270.730.221.3
20280.730.221.3
20290.730.221.3
20300.730.221.3

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeavenworthWASHINGTON202024
TwispWASHINGTON182024
SnowdenWASHINGTON172025
Mt HoodOREGON142025
Barnes ValOREGON131984
IndexWASHINGTON101970
TonasketWASHINGTON102018
KendallWASHINGTON82025
NighthawkWASHINGTON82025
SelahWASHINGTON82012
Hardware RanchUTAH72023
RirieIDAHO62025
ImnahaOREGON62025
EightmileOREGON61992
BlyOREGON61994
Badger CreekOREGON62002
MaldenWASHINGTON62025
IndexWASHINGTON61997
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON62025
YakimaWASHINGTON62025
ReardanWASHINGTON52024
MazamaWASHINGTON52022
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON52024
WaitsburgWASHINGTON52004
PaisleyOREGON42001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.