BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-15%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.5–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.5–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.12.55.8
20274.12.55.8
20284.22.55.8
20294.22.55.8
20304.22.55.8

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RainierWASHINGTON492025
DeceptionWASHINGTON302018
ElktonOREGON282025
GreenOREGON262025
SvensenOREGON241992
EverettWASHINGTON232025
Sandy RiverOREGON222006
IssaquahWASHINGTON181987
CanbyOREGON172025
Port AngelesWASHINGTON172025
Mendota 3WASHINGTON172025
CamasWASHINGTON152018
MukilteoWASHINGTON142025
DaytonOREGON132025
TualatinOREGON112025
Warm BeachWASHINGTON112017
MendotaWASHINGTON111988
Mendota 2WASHINGTON112000
KamilcheWASHINGTON102025
South ElmaWASHINGTON102024
Pe EllWASHINGTON102025
CarnationWASHINGTON102025
Bay ViewWASHINGTON92017
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON92024
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.