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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-53%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.003.3
20261.20.003.2
20271.10.003.2
20281.10.003.2
20291.10.003.2

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WillowALASKA392024
CottonwoodALASKA111990
Burma RoadALASKA102024
Swan Lake RdALASKA82023
CohoeALASKA72023
KalifonskyALASKA62023
Chena Hot SpALASKA61990
WasillaALASKA61983
McgrathALASKA62022
Birch LakeALASKA42022
Nicholai SlALASKA42024
Manley Ht SpALASKA42022
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA42024
LivengoodALASKA32019
Goose BayALASKA31982
Kenny LakeALASKA32024
ColdfootALASKA32022
Mud RiverALASKA32024
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA32023
Kanuti LakeALASKA32013
CircleALASKA22022
Chatanika RALASKA22021
ChistochinaALASKA22024
L SalchaALASKA22023
Seven LakesALASKA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.