BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 133% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+133%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
226Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 3.3–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 3.3–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.63.16.1
20264.73.26.1
20274.73.26.2
20284.73.26.2
20294.83.36.3

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA432024
McdonoughNEW-YORK342017
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA332021
FinzelMARYLAND322024
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY292024
JenningsMARYLAND282024
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA282022
DrydenNEW-YORK242024
MeridaleNEW-YORK222024
OneontaNEW-YORK222024
S Berne 2NEW-YORK222024
OldtownMARYLAND212024
Pocono Summit 2PENNSYLVANIA202010
Mt HopeNEW-YORK192010
OdinPENNSYLVANIA192024
Platte CoveNEW-YORK182018
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA182024
MidvaleNEW-JERSEY172022
DoverNEW-JERSEY172023
EldredPENNSYLVANIA172022
SigelPENNSYLVANIA162024
Russell CityPENNSYLVANIA162024
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA162024
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA162024
RioWEST-VIRGINIA161995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.