BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 334% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+334%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 334% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.15 (95% range 0.04–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±201.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±201.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.15 (95% range 0.04–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±201.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.030.25
20260.140.030.25
20270.140.040.26
20280.150.040.26
20290.150.040.26

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SyracuseMISSOURI52001
WoodlandvilleMISSOURI52024
HaydenMISSOURI22004
Osage BeachMISSOURI22007
YorkILLINOIS12014
CascadeMISSOURI11997
CentertownMISSOURI12016
Cole CampMISSOURI11989
BlandMISSOURI12002
SedaliaMISSOURI12022
EugeneMISSOURI12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.