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Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 373% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+373%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 170% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.03–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+170%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±245.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 170% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.03–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.020.25
20270.140.030.25
20280.140.030.25
20290.140.030.25
20300.140.030.26

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SyracuseMISSOURI52001
WoodlandvilleMISSOURI52025
HaydenMISSOURI22004
Osage BeachMISSOURI22007
YorkILLINOIS12014
CascadeMISSOURI11997
CentertownMISSOURI12016
Cole CampMISSOURI11989
BlandMISSOURI12002
SedaliaMISSOURI12022
EugeneMISSOURI12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.