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Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Forest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in BCR 2 has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-26%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.003.9
20261.90.004.0
20271.90.004.0
20281.90.004.0
20291.90.004.0

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kanektok RivALASKA72005
ChiniakALASKA52024
King SalmonALASKA52024
Kodiak 2ALASKA42024
Togiak RiverALASKA42003
DillinghamALASKA22017
Salmon LakeALASKA22010
Gweek RiverALASKA22002
Goodnews BayALASKA22002
KodiakALASKA11983
Katmai N.P.ALASKA12022
CouncilALASKA12024
St. Mary'SALASKA11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.