BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.660.001.5
20260.650.001.4
20270.640.001.4
20280.620.001.4
20290.610.001.4

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HopewellKANSAS142012
WellingtonKANSAS122024
BuckeyeKANSAS62023
AshlandKANSAS51992
BradyNEBRASKA52024
HanoverKANSAS42023
LibertyNEBRASKA42003
HolbrookNEBRASKA41996
BartlettNEBRASKA41976
MaxwellNEBRASKA42021
ChapmanKANSAS31981
Jewell 2KANSAS32024
BerwetKANSAS32024
Beloit 2KANSAS32018
AlmeriaNEBRASKA32021
DaltonKANSAS22004
AlbertKANSAS21991
HaysKANSAS21988
HollenbergKANSAS22023
CovertKANSAS22024
JewellKANSAS22005
LoganKANSAS22005
SolomonKANSAS22018
HodgesKANSAS22003
JamestownKANSAS22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.