BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-46%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.001.4
20270.640.001.4
20280.620.001.4
20290.610.001.4
20300.590.001.4

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WellingtonKANSAS192025
HopewellKANSAS142012
BuckeyeKANSAS62023
BerwetKANSAS62025
AshlandKANSAS51992
LibertyNEBRASKA42003
HolbrookNEBRASKA41996
BartlettNEBRASKA41976
MaxwellNEBRASKA42021
ChapmanKANSAS31981
KanopolisKANSAS32025
GoesselKANSAS32025
Beloit 2KANSAS32018
AlmeriaNEBRASKA32021
JohnstownNEBRASKA32025
DaltonKANSAS22004
AlbertKANSAS21991
HaysKANSAS21988
HollenbergKANSAS22025
CovertKANSAS22024
JewellKANSAS22005
LoganKANSAS22005
SolomonKANSAS22025
HodgesKANSAS22003
JamestownKANSAS22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.