BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+161%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.04–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.04–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.020.57
20260.300.030.57
20270.300.030.57
20280.300.030.58
20290.310.040.58

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA202024
CrawfordNEBRASKA92024
ElbertCOLORADO82022
BrownsonNEBRASKA52021
ChugwaterWYOMING41981
RushCOLORADO32017
Adams Co.COLORADO22016
BennettCOLORADO21999
ArsenalCOLORADO22001
KimballNEBRASKA21978
YoderWYOMING21997
KiowaCOLORADO12014
HudsonCOLORADO12015
TrincheraCOLORADO12014
Cone MtnCOLORADO11990
GroverCOLORADO12024
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO11995
NeegrandeCOLORADO11996
Fort MorganCOLORADO12019
Arsenal 2COLORADO12018
PaxtonNEBRASKA11993
DaltonNEBRASKA11985
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12013
BereaNEBRASKA11982
LingleWYOMING12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.