BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+1%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 208% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.49–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+208%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±155.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 208% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.49–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.423.8
20262.10.443.8
20272.10.463.8
20282.10.473.8
20292.20.493.8

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA342004
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA282002
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA142013
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA142021
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA132012
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA112018
Chuffey SpringMONTANA92023
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA91991
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA92017
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA92024
SundanceWYOMING92024
MoskeeWYOMING92001
Moskee 2WYOMING72021
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA62023
Bull Mtn.MONTANA52021
Seely 2WYOMING52024
HighwoodMONTANA42024
Reed PointMONTANA42024
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA42018
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
RecluseWYOMING42022
Soda WellWYOMING42023
Moskee 3WYOMING42024
JordanMONTANA32018
ForsythMONTANA32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.