BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+7%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.45–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.45–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.393.7
20272.10.403.7
20282.10.423.7
20292.10.433.8
20302.10.453.8

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA342004
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA282002
SundanceWYOMING232025
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA152025
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA142013
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA142021
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA132012
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA122025
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA91991
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA92017
MoskeeWYOMING92001
Moskee 3WYOMING82025
Miles CityMONTANA72025
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA72025
Moskee 2WYOMING72021
BrandenbergMONTANA62025
Reed PointMONTANA52025
Bull Mtn.MONTANA52021
Seely 2WYOMING52025
CrookstonNEBRASKA42025
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA42018
DaytonWYOMING42025
RecluseWYOMING42022
Soda WellWYOMING42023
JordanMONTANA32018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.