BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 375% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+375%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
141Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 375% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Black-capped Chickadee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.17–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.17–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.600.151.0
20270.600.151.1
20280.610.161.1
20290.610.171.1
20300.620.171.1

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
La SalUTAH251998
AspenCOLORADO112025
YampaCOLORADO82023
Blackhead PkCOLORADO82025
ThomasvilleCOLORADO82007
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO71994
Uintah NfUTAH71994
M Warner ResUTAH71993
La Sal 2UTAH62006
KamasUTAH62025
Rollins PassCOLORADO52025
RichfieldUTAH52016
Book RidgeUTAH52013
Lost Cr. ResUTAH52018
Bryce CanyonUTAH52024
WarbonnetWYOMING51998
ColonaCOLORADO42014
CastletonCOLORADO42024
Marshall PasCOLORADO42016
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO42025
Grizzly RdgeUTAH42022
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH42025
Main CanyonUTAH41991
SoapstoneUTAH42024
Moon LakeUTAH42003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.