BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 432% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+432%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
140Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 432% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.16–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.16–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.600.141.1
20260.600.151.1
20270.610.151.1
20280.610.161.1
20290.620.161.1

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
La SalUTAH251998
YampaCOLORADO82023
ThomasvilleCOLORADO82007
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO71994
Uintah NfUTAH71994
M Warner ResUTAH71993
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH62023
La Sal 2UTAH62006
RichfieldUTAH52016
Book RidgeUTAH52013
Lost Cr. ResUTAH52018
Bryce CanyonUTAH52024
WarbonnetWYOMING51998
ColonaCOLORADO42014
CastletonCOLORADO42024
Marshall PasCOLORADO42016
Grizzly RdgeUTAH42022
Skyline DrivUTAH41987
Main CanyonUTAH41991
SoapstoneUTAH42024
Moon LakeUTAH42003
KamasUTAH42024
MonticelloUTAH42024
HarmonyCOLORADO32024
BufordCOLORADO32016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.