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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 14–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 14–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191424
2027191425
2028191425
2029191425
2030201425

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrooksMAINE522021
FletcherVERMONT482025
HermonMAINE402021
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE392025
Northfld FlsVERMONT392025
Underwood 2NEW-YORK362009
North RiverNEW-YORK342025
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE322025
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS292025
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE292025
InletNEW-YORK292017
Forest StaMAINE282000
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE282025
Old ForgeNEW-YORK282006
MarlboroVERMONT282025
WestbrookMAINE262024
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE262025
GaysvilleVERMONT262025
TurnerMAINE252010
NorthfieldMAINE251981
Old Forge 2NEW-YORK252019
BrownfieldMAINE242009
TopsfieldMAINE231996
Gilmantn I WNEW-HAMPSHIRE232025
MiddlesexVERMONT232025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.