BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 14–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 14–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191424
2026191425
2027191425
2028191425
2029201425

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS482024
LempsterNEW-HAMPSHIRE372024
Underwood 2NEW-YORK362009
Turner 2MAINE352024
CharlestonMAINE332019
BrooksMAINE322019
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE322024
East CalaisVERMONT322024
MiddlesexVERMONT312024
InletNEW-YORK292017
Forest StaMAINE282000
Old ForgeNEW-YORK282006
LandgroveVERMONT272024
WestbrookMAINE262024
TurnerMAINE252010
NorthfieldMAINE251981
CornvilleMAINE252024
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS252024
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE252024
Old Forge 2NEW-YORK252019
BrownfieldMAINE242009
TopsfieldMAINE231996
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS222014
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE222024
DannemoraNEW-YORK222006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.