BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+171%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 8.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.9–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.9–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 8.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.9–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025128.415
2026128.615
2027128.715
2028128.815
2029128.915

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CatskillsNEW-YORK522015
ParishvilleNEW-YORK362024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK301995
HinesburgVERMONT301994
GarrettsvileOHIO271991
North EastonNEW-YORK252024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK212024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK181998
DuanesburgNEW-YORK172024
BranchportNEW-YORK172024
W ShokanNEW-YORK162019
RhinebeckNEW-YORK142024
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK142024
OrleansNEW-YORK142024
Canadice LNEW-YORK142024
HamburgNEW-YORK142024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK132024
SheridanNEW-YORK132024
PulaskiNEW-YORK132024
Alder CreekNEW-YORK132004
CayugaNEW-YORK122024
ArgyleNEW-YORK122024
WaylandOHIO122017
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK112024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.