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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+113%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 10–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 10–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025149.519
2026149.619
2027149.719
2028159.919
2029151019

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN362024
IrmaWISCONSIN362024
Washington IWISCONSIN362024
Land O LakesWISCONSIN342016
WausaukeeWISCONSIN332024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN312024
Cedar RunMICHIGAN281999
CunardMICHIGAN262021
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN252024
Union TwpWISCONSIN242024
MayfieldMICHIGAN232022
OntonagonMICHIGAN222019
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN222024
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN221997
BemidjiMINNESOTA211980
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN192004
FredericMICHIGAN192003
OberlinMICHIGAN182015
Sand LakeMICHIGAN182024
GlendaleMINNESOTA182024
McnaughtonWISCONSIN182024
HermanMICHIGAN172022
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN172024
Hart LakeMINNESOTA172024
FloodwoodMINNESOTA172024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.