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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 104% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+104%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 104% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 61% by 2030 — from 8.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.6–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.6–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 61% by 2030 — from 8.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.6–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026149.119
2027149.219
2028149.419
2029149.519
2030149.619

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN392025
Land O LakesWISCONSIN342016
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN312024
WausaukeeWISCONSIN292025
Cedar RunMICHIGAN281999
CunardMICHIGAN262021
MayfieldMICHIGAN252025
Union TwpWISCONSIN252025
Washington IWISCONSIN232025
OntonagonMICHIGAN222019
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN221997
HarriettaMICHIGAN222025
BemidjiMINNESOTA211980
IshpemingMICHIGAN192025
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN192004
FredericMICHIGAN192003
OberlinMICHIGAN182015
Hart LakeMINNESOTA182025
McnaughtonWISCONSIN182024
HermanMICHIGAN172022
BashawWISCONSIN172025
PickfordMICHIGAN162025
Imp LakeMICHIGAN162019
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN152025
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN152010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.