BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+113%Since 1968
127Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 10–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029
15Projected 2029 index
10–1995% range
±43.6%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025149.519
2026149.619
2027149.719
2028159.919
2029151019

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN362024
IrmaWISCONSIN362024
Washington IWISCONSIN362024
Land O LakesWISCONSIN342016
WausaukeeWISCONSIN332024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN312024
Cedar RunMICHIGAN281999
CunardMICHIGAN262021
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN252024
Union TwpWISCONSIN242024
MayfieldMICHIGAN232022
OntonagonMICHIGAN222019
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN222024
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN221997
BemidjiMINNESOTA211980
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN192004
FredericMICHIGAN192003
OberlinMICHIGAN182015
Sand LakeMICHIGAN182024
GlendaleMINNESOTA182024
McnaughtonWISCONSIN182024
HermanMICHIGAN172022
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN172024
Hart LakeMINNESOTA172024
FloodwoodMINNESOTA172024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.