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Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Rockies has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-43%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
170Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.76–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.76–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.76–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.813.4
20272.10.803.4
20282.10.793.4
20292.10.773.3
20302.00.763.3

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colter Bay 2WYOMING302021
ChewelahWASHINGTON242021
Pagil GulchMONTANA222025
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON212024
NaplesIDAHO182025
KellerWASHINGTON182007
LaurierWASHINGTON172025
DesolationOREGON161993
MoranWYOMING142016
Lolo PassIDAHO122016
KalispellMONTANA122025
NinemileMONTANA122025
CoolinIDAHO112025
WallowaOREGON102025
Deer ParkWASHINGTON102015
VictorMONTANA92025
WilsonWYOMING92025
ArleeMONTANA82025
Twin LakesWASHINGTON82025
ClancyMONTANA72025
TroyOREGON72025
St RegisMONTANA62025
WoodmanMONTANA62025
ClintonMONTANA62025
Fish CreekMONTANA62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.