BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Rockies has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-35%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
169Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.81–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.81–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.81–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.863.4
20262.10.853.4
20272.10.843.4
20282.10.833.4
20292.10.813.4

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colter Bay 2WYOMING302021
ChewelahWASHINGTON242021
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON212024
CoolinIDAHO182024
KellerWASHINGTON182007
Pagil GulchMONTANA172024
CusickWASHINGTON172024
LaurierWASHINGTON172022
DesolationOREGON161993
MoranWYOMING142016
Lolo PassIDAHO122016
Deer ParkWASHINGTON102015
Libby DamMONTANA92024
NinemileMONTANA92024
NaplesIDAHO82024
WoodmanMONTANA82024
Pablo Res.MONTANA72023
NorthportWASHINGTON72024
WilsonWYOMING72024
KalispellMONTANA62024
Fish CreekMONTANA62024
SkalkahoMONTANA61998
Clyde ParkMONTANA62024
Cramer CreekMONTANA62019
GreenoughMONTANA62002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.