BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Cuckoo In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Black-billed Cuckoo in Prairie Potholes has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-billed Cuckoo has collapsed in Prairie Potholes: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-billed Cuckoo In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.1
20260.000.001.1
20270.000.001.1
20280.000.001.1
20290.000.001.1

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Black-billed Cuckoo in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA102011
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA82012
TenneyMINNESOTA61994
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA51984
NashNORTH-DAKOTA42010
Redwood FallMINNESOTA31986
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA31987
ZearingIOWA21994
HartlandMINNESOTA22015
HuntleyMINNESOTA22015
ChokioMINNESOTA21984
BeltramiMINNESOTA22024
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA22021
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA22023
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA22002
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA22000
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA22007
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA22010
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22010
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA22019
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA22013
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA21979
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA22008
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA21971

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.