BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bewick's Wren In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Bewick's Wren in Chihuahuan Desert has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bewick's Wren in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Bewick's Wren In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.78–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.78–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.78–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.40.716.2
20263.50.736.2
20273.50.756.2
20283.50.776.2
20293.50.786.2

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Devils R CynTEXAS922024
PumpvilleTEXAS372024
ComstockTEXAS292023
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO102024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS102009
GirvinTEXAS92017
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO62015
QueenNEW-MEXICO62021
LongfellowTEXAS52024
PinonNEW-MEXICO42024
LangtryTEXAS42000
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO32023
Delaware CrkTEXAS32014
Ft. StocktonTEXAS32019
Chisos BasinTEXAS32024
GageNEW-MEXICO22010
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22019
Red RockNEW-MEXICO22023
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO22024
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO22024
ValentineTEXAS21987
CastolonTEXAS22024
MarfaTEXAS22024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12023
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.