BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bewick's Wren In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Bewick's Wren in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+87%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bewick's Wren has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bewick's Wren In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 7.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.94–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.94–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 7.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.94–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.80.846.7
20273.80.866.7
20283.80.896.7
20293.80.916.7
20303.90.946.8

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Devils R CynTEXAS1662025
PumpvilleTEXAS432025
ComstockTEXAS242025
Ozona 2TEXAS152025
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO132025
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS102009
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO62015
QueenNEW-MEXICO62021
LongfellowTEXAS62025
Chisos BasinTEXAS62025
Bear MtnTEXAS52025
PinonNEW-MEXICO42024
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO42025
LangtryTEXAS42000
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO32023
Delaware CrkTEXAS32014
Ft. StocktonTEXAS32019
GageNEW-MEXICO22010
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22019
Red RockNEW-MEXICO22023
ValentineTEXAS21987
MarfaTEXAS22024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12023
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12023
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.