BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bell's Vireo In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Bell's Vireo in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 235% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+235%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bell's Vireo has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 234% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bell's Vireo In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.12–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.12–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.110.36
20260.240.110.37
20270.240.110.37
20280.240.120.37
20290.250.120.38

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RupertARKANSAS161993
PimentoINDIANA42024
MillersburgINDIANA42014
PulaskiILLINOIS32024
BrownvilleILLINOIS32024
SedaliaMISSOURI32024
FultonARKANSAS22024
CentertonARKANSAS22023
FarwellARKANSAS22018
YorkILLINOIS22024
RoyaltonILLINOIS22024
SwedenMISSOURI21985
LincolnMISSOURI22024
MillerMISSOURI22024
ZionARKANSAS12016
AvocaARKANSAS12022
RussellARKANSAS12021
RudyARKANSAS12018
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS12014
BirdsILLINOIS12024
BremenILLINOIS12022
BelknapILLINOIS12018
DelwoodILLINOIS12018
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS11970
BrazilINDIANA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.