BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bell's Vireo In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Bell's Vireo in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 236% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+236%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bell's Vireo has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 236% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 21 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 21 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201227
2026201228
2027201328
2028201328
2029211328

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San SabaTEXAS532024
HarperTEXAS452024
MontellTEXAS442024
Valley SpgsTEXAS412024
RockspringTEXAS362024
Allen CreekTEXAS242024
Indian MtnTEXAS192024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS152024
UtopiaTEXAS132024
LeakeyTEXAS112024
AdamsvilleTEXAS62024
KempnerTEXAS42024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS42024
GeorgetownTEXAS31967
FitzhughTEXAS31983
BoerneTEXAS12024
PidcokeTEXAS12009
Dripping SpgTEXAS12023
LeanderTEXAS11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.