BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bell's Vireo In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Bell's Vireo in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bell's Vireo in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Bell's Vireo In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.19
20270.080.000.19
20280.080.000.19
20290.080.000.19
20300.080.000.19

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA42025
PoncaNEBRASKA32019
LaneSOUTH-DAKOTA31972
MaynardMINNESOTA22000
MidwayNEBRASKA22025
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA21971
PantherIOWA12024
WashingtonIOWA12021
SpartaNEBRASKA12025
WinsideNEBRASKA12003
Winside 2NEBRASKA12011
TildenNEBRASKA12025
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA12018
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA11996
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.