BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Great Basin has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
231Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.7 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.7 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.40.0013
20265.20.0013
20275.00.0013
20284.80.0013
20294.70.0012

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UmatillaOREGON2012023
LikelyCALIFORNIA902024
PotholesWASHINGTON802023
Glenns FerryIDAHO671986
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON502024
DorrisCALIFORNIA472019
OthelloWASHINGTON441991
MesaWASHINGTON402008
Mud LakeIDAHO392023
Blacks CreekIDAHO382017
PocatelloIDAHO352019
EllensburgWASHINGTON342024
NewcastleUTAH332022
QuincyWASHINGTON332024
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON332022
Cedar HillIDAHO322024
Bear RiverUTAH322023
HarringtonWASHINGTON322012
HarwoodWASHINGTON321997
PrincetonOREGON271985
SelahWASHINGTON262023
Gardnerville 2NEVADA242024
Moses LakeWASHINGTON232022
SpringfieldIDAHO222018
OrdnanceOREGON221979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.