BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Great Basin has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
232Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.20.0013
20275.10.0013
20284.90.0013
20294.70.0012
20304.50.0012

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PotholesWASHINGTON802023
LikelyCALIFORNIA712025
Glenns FerryIDAHO671986
RirieIDAHO482025
DorrisCALIFORNIA472019
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON452025
OthelloWASHINGTON441991
MesaWASHINGTON402008
EllensburgWASHINGTON392025
Blacks CreekIDAHO382017
Mud LakeIDAHO372025
PocatelloIDAHO352019
QuincyWASHINGTON332024
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON332022
Cedar HillIDAHO322024
HarringtonWASHINGTON322012
HarwoodWASHINGTON321997
KendallWASHINGTON312025
Ewan 2WASHINGTON302025
PrincetonOREGON271985
Modoc Point 2OREGON262025
SelahWASHINGTON262023
UmatillaOREGON242025
Moses LakeWASHINGTON232022
SpringfieldIDAHO222018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.