BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 37× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

37×Since 1970
47Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Barn Swallow has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 37× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 30 (95% range 14–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029
30Projected 2029 index
14–4595% range
±98.8%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025281243
2026281344
2027291344
2028291445
2029301445

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Oyster LakeTEXAS2782024
Padre Island PaisTEXAS1052015
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA962011
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA792024
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA512017
Forked IslandLOUISIANA452024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA442011
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA412008
BaysideTEXAS382010
DanburyTEXAS272024
MauriceLOUISIANA262024
EstherLOUISIANA242024
Grand IsleLOUISIANA242019
ChinquapinTEXAS222024
CreoleLOUISIANA131987
HackberryLOUISIANA122016
WoodlawnLOUISIANA122021
Port AcresTEXAS102024
San PedroTEXAS102018
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA92024
Hinkles FerTEXAS82024
VanderbiltTEXAS81976
RichardLOUISIANA72024
KatyTEXAS72024
Bayside 3TEXAS72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.