BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 37× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

37×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 37× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Barn Swallow In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 30 (95% range 14–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 30 (95% range 14–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025281243
2026281344
2027291344
2028291445
2029301445

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oyster LakeTEXAS2782024
Padre Island PaisTEXAS1052015
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA962011
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA792024
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA512017
Forked IslandLOUISIANA452024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA442011
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA412008
BaysideTEXAS382010
DanburyTEXAS272024
MauriceLOUISIANA262024
EstherLOUISIANA242024
Grand IsleLOUISIANA242019
ChinquapinTEXAS222024
CreoleLOUISIANA131987
HackberryLOUISIANA122016
WoodlawnLOUISIANA122021
Port AcresTEXAS102024
San PedroTEXAS102018
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA92024
Hinkles FerTEXAS82024
VanderbiltTEXAS81976
RichardLOUISIANA72024
KatyTEXAS72024
Bayside 3TEXAS72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.