BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 39× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

39×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 39× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Barn Swallow In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 111% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 13–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+111%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 111% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 13–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026271143
2027281244
2028281244
2029291345
2030291345

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Padre Island PaisTEXAS1052015
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA962011
EstherLOUISIANA602025
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA512017
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA442011
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA412008
ChinquapinTEXAS412025
BaysideTEXAS382010
Forked IslandLOUISIANA372025
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA292025
MauriceLOUISIANA262024
Grand IsleLOUISIANA242019
KatyTEXAS212025
WinnieTEXAS202025
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA142025
CreoleLOUISIANA131987
Hinkles FerTEXAS132025
StowellTEXAS132025
HackberryLOUISIANA122016
WoodlawnLOUISIANA122021
Vinton 2LOUISIANA122025
Bayside 3TEXAS122025
Oyster LakeTEXAS102025
San PedroTEXAS102018
VanderbiltTEXAS81976

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.