BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 763% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+763%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 763% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barn Swallow In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.780.001.7
20270.790.001.7
20280.800.001.7
20290.820.001.7
20300.830.001.7

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indiantown 2FLORIDA472025
MicanopyFLORIDA51991
ChildsFLORIDA52004
IndiantownFLORIDA52010
Citrus ParkFLORIDA52017
St LucieFLORIDA42025
Holey LandFLORIDA42025
RomeoFLORIDA32025
NobletonFLORIDA31997
Sandy 2FLORIDA32022
CrewsvilleFLORIDA32002
Shawano 2FLORIDA32011
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA32008
OcalaFLORIDA31989
BelmoreFLORIDA22021
ScottsmoorFLORIDA22021
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22021
DeanvilleFLORIDA22008
Pennywash CrFLORIDA22024
ClewistonFLORIDA22018
Island GroveFLORIDA22008
Punta GordaFLORIDA22007
Mt. OliveFLORIDA22025
WebbFLORIDA22017
Wildernes PkFLORIDA21993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.