BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 500% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+500%Since 1969
53Routes In Region
48Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Barn Swallow has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 500% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029
0.73Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.695% range
±38.2%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.690.001.5
20260.700.001.5
20270.710.001.6
20280.720.001.6
20290.730.001.6

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Peninsular Florida.
Indiantown 2FLORIDA202024
HomesteadFLORIDA112023
RomeoFLORIDA92024
MicanopyFLORIDA51991
ChildsFLORIDA52004
IndiantownFLORIDA52010
Citrus ParkFLORIDA52017
NobletonFLORIDA31997
Sandy 2FLORIDA32022
CrewsvilleFLORIDA32002
Shawano 2FLORIDA32011
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA32008
OcalaFLORIDA31989
BelmoreFLORIDA22021
ScottsmoorFLORIDA22021
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22021
DeanvilleFLORIDA22008
Pennywash CrFLORIDA22024
ClewistonFLORIDA22018
Island GroveFLORIDA22008
Punta GordaFLORIDA22007
Mt. OliveFLORIDA22024
WebbFLORIDA22017
Wildernes PkFLORIDA21993
Dale MabryFLORIDA11970

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.