BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Piedmont has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
169Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Piedmont is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 10–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Piedmont is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 10–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026141018
2027141018
2028141018
2029141018
2030141018

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TaylorstownVIRGINIA1012010
MadonnaMARYLAND982022
LeolaPENNSYLVANIA732025
MetasvilleGEORGIA702000
OlneyMARYLAND512025
EarltonMARYLAND512024
JoannaSOUTH-CAROLINA452023
EkloMARYLAND432018
LabottPENNSYLVANIA431983
EmmitsburgMARYLAND422025
AkronPENNSYLVANIA421997
Bachman MillMARYLAND392025
AspersPENNSYLVANIA391989
ChathamPENNSYLVANIA392025
MaxeysGEORGIA362024
Carters BrdgVIRGINIA342014
Pleasant ValMARYLAND332025
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA332022
BendersvillePENNSYLVANIA332024
West GrovePENNSYLVANIA321996
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA302025
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA292025
EphrataPENNSYLVANIA281988
WedoweeALABAMA262023
BowdonGEORGIA262025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.