BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Piedmont has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-3%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
168Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 10–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 10–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025151118
2026151118
2027141118
2028141118
2029141018

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TaylorstownVIRGINIA1012010
MadonnaMARYLAND982022
LeolaPENNSYLVANIA752024
MetasvilleGEORGIA702000
EmmitsburgMARYLAND552024
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA552024
EarltonMARYLAND512024
JoannaSOUTH-CAROLINA452023
EkloMARYLAND432018
LabottPENNSYLVANIA431983
AkronPENNSYLVANIA421997
AspersPENNSYLVANIA391989
RutledgeGEORGIA372024
Brick TavernPENNSYLVANIA372024
MaxeysGEORGIA362024
ChathamPENNSYLVANIA362024
Carters BrdgVIRGINIA342014
Bachman MillMARYLAND332024
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA332022
BendersvillePENNSYLVANIA332024
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA322024
West GrovePENNSYLVANIA321996
OlneyMARYLAND292024
EphrataPENNSYLVANIA281988
WedoweeALABAMA262023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.