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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 71× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

71×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 71× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Barn Swallow In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 5.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 5.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.44.612
20268.64.712
20278.74.913
20288.85.013
20299.05.113

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pidcoke 2TEXAS1142024
ManorTEXAS482024
LeanderTEXAS102006
UtopiaTEXAS92024
BoerneTEXAS72023
HarperTEXAS72024
AdamsvilleTEXAS52024
GeorgetownTEXAS41985
Dripping SpgTEXAS32024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS32024
RockspringTEXAS32024
Valley SpgsTEXAS22023
San SabaTEXAS22024
FitzhughTEXAS11982
PidcokeTEXAS12017
KempnerTEXAS12023
Indian MtnTEXAS12023
LeakeyTEXAS12024
MontellTEXAS12024
Allen CreekTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.