BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025181125
2026181125
2027181125
2028181125
2029181125

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LibertyNEBRASKA702003
CovertKANSAS642024
ColonyOKLAHOMA591995
Liberty 2NEBRASKA482007
JetOKLAHOMA472024
OcontoNEBRASKA461981
ArapahoOKLAHOMA462014
ColdwaterKANSAS452022
HamptonNEBRASKA412024
GrimesOKLAHOMA412024
CoopertonOKLAHOMA402024
AlbertKANSAS382024
BeaverOKLAHOMA382018
WakitaOKLAHOMA372016
PetersburgNEBRASKA362023
JohnstownNEBRASKA342024
CashionOKLAHOMA342024
SurpriseNEBRASKA332024
ChambersNEBRASKA322023
HodgesKANSAS312014
BerwynNEBRASKA312010
SargentNEBRASKA292024
BeloitKANSAS282003
ElginOKLAHOMA282016
KanopolisKANSAS272024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.