BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 11–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 11–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181125
2027181125
2028181125
2029181125
2030171124

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CoatsKANSAS842025
LibertyNEBRASKA702003
SurpriseNEBRASKA602025
JohnstownNEBRASKA602025
ColonyOKLAHOMA591995
KanopolisKANSAS522025
BrownleeNEBRASKA522025
Liberty 2NEBRASKA482007
GrimesOKLAHOMA482025
JetOKLAHOMA472024
OcontoNEBRASKA461981
ArapahoOKLAHOMA462014
ColdwaterKANSAS452022
AlbertKANSAS442025
GordonNEBRASKA402025
CoopertonOKLAHOMA392025
BeaverOKLAHOMA382018
WakitaOKLAHOMA372016
PetersburgNEBRASKA352025
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA352025
Crescent LkNEBRASKA342025
CashionOKLAHOMA342024
SolomonKANSAS332025
DaltonKANSAS322025
BerwetKANSAS322025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.