BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Aerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in BCR 4 has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-79%Since 1976
57Routes In Region
46Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Bank Swallow has collapsed in BCR 4: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–1295% range
±117.5%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.110.0012
20260.000.0012
20270.000.0012
20280.000.0012
20290.000.0012

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Bank Swallow in BCR 4.
Bear CreekALASKA961991
WasillaALASKA651983
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA561992
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA422001
CircleALASKA312024
McgrathALASKA272019
Tangle LakesALASKA231987
Mud RiverALASKA202024
Hather CreekALASKA172022
Paxson LakeALASKA161992
CantwellALASKA112003
MatanuskaALASKA111983
Lake LouiseALASKA112008
Anvik RiverALASKA102024
MaclarenALASKA92024
KachemakALASKA82008
Porcupine R.ALASKA82002
DeltaALASKA82024
Goose BayALASKA71982
KalifonskyALASKA72016
Kanuti CanynALASKA72024
LivengoodALASKA62012
ChistochinaALASKA62024
HomerALASKA61982
Burma RoadALASKA62004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.