BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-95%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bank Swallow In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±399.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±399.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±399.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.76
20260.000.000.76
20270.000.000.76
20280.000.000.76
20290.000.000.76

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BloomsburyNEW-JERSEY401992
W AugustaVIRGINIA282000
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA211986
RiftonNEW-YORK201967
Corryton RdTENNESSEE182001
Green BankWEST-VIRGINIA171997
English CtrPENNSYLVANIA151975
Mt OliveALABAMA121974
OneontaNEW-YORK121998
RydePENNSYLVANIA121993
DurhamNEW-YORK101976
HixWEST-VIRGINIA101982
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA101980
CentervilleNEW-YORK92006
Hop BottomPENNSYLVANIA82005
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA81995
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA72022
CorbettsvileNEW-YORK61993
Vestal CtrNEW-YORK62009
Warwick 2NEW-YORK62009
BirminghamOHIO62024
RosecransPENNSYLVANIA62021
Clear CreekWEST-VIRGINIA61995
MedusaNEW-YORK52019
MeadowbrookOHIO52007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.