BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bank Swallow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Central Hardwoods has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+63%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has risen sharply in Central Hardwoods: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Bank Swallow In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.000.48
20270.170.000.48
20280.170.000.49
20290.180.000.49
20300.180.000.49

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MillerMISSOURI272019
EugeneMISSOURI232024
RichlandMISSOURI182025
SpencerINDIANA102007
LincolnMISSOURI102023
WashingtonINDIANA42019
CumbackINDIANA31975
Indian SpgsINDIANA32025
CollinwoodTENNESSEE31980
BelknapILLINOIS22024
DelwoodILLINOIS21989
BrazilINDIANA22009
GeorgiaINDIANA22025
GoshenKENTUCKY21977
SyracuseMISSOURI22011
BradyvilleTENNESSEE22014
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA12002
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS12015
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS11988
BirdsILLINOIS11992
PulaskiILLINOIS12016
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS11983
YorkILLINOIS12025
KarnakILLINOIS12009
CelestineINDIANA12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.