BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
147Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bank Swallow In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 82% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 82% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.800.004.5
20260.660.004.4
20270.520.004.3
20280.380.004.1
20290.240.004.0

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OmroWISCONSIN682001
Whitewater 2MINNESOTA492015
WhitewaterMINNESOTA402000
BismarkOHIO351995
Money CreekMINNESOTA322019
Rolling GrndWISCONSIN302023
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN302015
VickeryOHIO282024
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN272022
HamburgMICHIGAN202001
MillvilleMINNESOTA182019
Mount HorebWISCONSIN181990
JuniataMICHIGAN162024
TyreMICHIGAN151996
MontereyMICHIGAN122024
KingswayOHIO122003
KnoxINDIANA111985
AdairMICHIGAN101995
EdwardsMINNESOTA102024
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN102018
EdenWISCONSIN92024
BeloitWISCONSIN92024
South BendINDIANA81975
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN82023
CadottWISCONSIN82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.