BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bank Swallow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bank Swallow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 406% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.00 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1729.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+406%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1729.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 406% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.00 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1729.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.990.002.3
20271.000.002.3
20281.000.002.3
20291.000.002.3
20301.000.002.3

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EllinorKANSAS1002018
WrefordKANSAS562001
SticklervillMISSOURI402015
WayneILLINOIS262024
IrvingtonNEBRASKA202021
DinsdaleIOWA152015
WashtaIOWA152025
MackinawILLINOIS132017
FrontenacMINNESOTA122024
No KentonOHIO122015
Grape CreekILLINOIS112019
SwayzeeINDIANA112000
LacledeMISSOURI112010
Mt VernonILLINOIS101980
Camp PointILLINOIS102025
Cedar ValleyIOWA101997
HumboldtKANSAS101986
WilmingtonOHIO91990
SterlingILLINOIS82007
Witts StationINDIANA82024
PrairieburgIOWA82013
TecumsehOHIO81971
JamestownILLINOIS71981
KeithsburgILLINOIS72009
DesmoinesIOWA71974

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.