BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bank Swallow In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±409.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±409.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±409.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.003.0
20260.000.003.0
20270.000.003.0
20280.000.003.0
20290.000.003.0

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
East TroyMAINE391996
TopsfieldMAINE391978
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS371993
EastbrookMAINE311996
WarrenMAINE211990
HardwickVERMONT202016
WatervilleVERMONT181980
BentonMAINE161979
WarrensburgNEW-YORK151978
HartfordMAINE122024
Forest StaMAINE121985
NorthfieldMAINE91981
WashburnMAINE91979
BethelMAINE82019
CambridgeMAINE82008
WanakenaNEW-YORK81994
WestbrookMAINE71993
WytopitlockMAINE71997
FreedomMAINE61996
St DavidMAINE61996
KasoagNEW-YORK62005
HighmarketNEW-YORK62002
St JohnsburyVERMONT62024
East HavenVERMONT61999
Otisfield GrMAINE52010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.