BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bank Swallow in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Bank Swallow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.8–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.8–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.21.76.6
20264.21.76.7
20274.21.76.7
20284.21.76.7
20294.21.86.7

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA702023
CourtlandMINNESOTA392024
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA392012
Great FallsMONTANA302022
AppletonMINNESOTA272023
PoncaNEBRASKA272024
ChinookMONTANA222024
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA202007
WinsideNEBRASKA192000
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA161996
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA152022
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA152024
GlyndonMINNESOTA132024
Big StoneMINNESOTA132012
Wolf PointMONTANA122023
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA121974
HartlandMINNESOTA102017
MidwayNEBRASKA102000
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA102024
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA102016
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA92024
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA92014
ArlingtonMINNESOTA81973
WhitlashMONTANA82016
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA82015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.