BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bachman's Sparrow In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Bachman's Sparrow in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968
42Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Bachman's Sparrow has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2029
0.58Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.495% range
±68.9%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.740.002.5
20260.700.002.5
20270.660.002.5
20280.620.002.4
20290.580.002.4

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in Peninsular Florida.
CitrusFLORIDA512024
CroomFLORIDA172024
KenansvilleFLORIDA152024
Babcock RnchFLORIDA111990
OcalaFLORIDA72024
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA62024
AlturasFLORIDA51986
BelmoreFLORIDA42023
IndiantownFLORIDA41987
PalmdaleFLORIDA42009
MabelFLORIDA31984
KissimmeeFLORIDA32008
SandyFLORIDA32014
GardnerFLORIDA31999
ArbuckleFLORIDA32018
RomeoFLORIDA22013
Dale MabryFLORIDA21983
St AugustineFLORIDA22009
Ft MccoyFLORIDA22001
NobletonFLORIDA22022
Pleasant GrFLORIDA21993
Island GroveFLORIDA22024
WebbFLORIDA22024
Ridge HarborFLORIDA22002
MicanopyFLORIDA11974

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.