BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bachman's Sparrow In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Bachman's Sparrow in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bachman's Sparrow has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bachman's Sparrow In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.740.002.5
20260.700.002.5
20270.660.002.5
20280.620.002.4
20290.580.002.4

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CitrusFLORIDA512024
CroomFLORIDA172024
KenansvilleFLORIDA152024
Babcock RnchFLORIDA111990
OcalaFLORIDA72024
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA62024
AlturasFLORIDA51986
BelmoreFLORIDA42023
IndiantownFLORIDA41987
PalmdaleFLORIDA42009
MabelFLORIDA31984
KissimmeeFLORIDA32008
SandyFLORIDA32014
GardnerFLORIDA31999
ArbuckleFLORIDA32018
RomeoFLORIDA22013
Dale MabryFLORIDA21983
St AugustineFLORIDA22009
Ft MccoyFLORIDA22001
NobletonFLORIDA22022
Pleasant GrFLORIDA21993
Island GroveFLORIDA22024
WebbFLORIDA22024
Ridge HarborFLORIDA22002
MicanopyFLORIDA11974

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.