BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-44%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.001.5
20260.240.001.5
20270.200.001.4
20280.170.001.4
20290.130.001.4

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LongvaleCALIFORNIA232023
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA112024
Sams ValleyOREGON92024
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON92024
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA82024
DerbyOREGON61993
Secret ValOREGON62022
HoneydewCALIFORNIA52017
HullvilleCALIFORNIA42019
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA42019
Emigrant LkOREGON42000
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA32024
GreenOREGON32024
ProspectOREGON32017
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA22019
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA22011
AlderpointCALIFORNIA22012
YrekaCALIFORNIA22019
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA22009
French GulchCALIFORNIA22011
GazelleCALIFORNIA22021
UmpquaOREGON22024
Days CreekOREGON22024
RuchOREGON22016
HolmesCALIFORNIA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.