BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-44%Since 1970
35Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-80%Change by 2029
0.13Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.495% range
±44.1%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.270.001.5
20260.240.001.5
20270.200.001.4
20280.170.001.4
20290.130.001.4

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
LongvaleCALIFORNIA232023
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA112024
Sams ValleyOREGON92024
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON92024
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA82024
DerbyOREGON61993
Secret ValOREGON62022
HoneydewCALIFORNIA52017
HullvilleCALIFORNIA42019
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA42019
Emigrant LkOREGON42000
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA32024
GreenOREGON32024
ProspectOREGON32017
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA22019
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA22011
AlderpointCALIFORNIA22012
YrekaCALIFORNIA22019
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA22009
French GulchCALIFORNIA22011
GazelleCALIFORNIA22021
UmpquaOREGON22024
Days CreekOREGON22024
RuchOREGON22016
HolmesCALIFORNIA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.