BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+48%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ash-throated Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 12–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 12–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161121
2027161121
2028161121
2029161221
2030161221

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sierra BlancTEXAS452025
Devils R CynTEXAS422025
PumpvilleTEXAS412025
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS392025
Bear MtnTEXAS342025
CornudasTEXAS332018
LongfellowTEXAS322025
ShafterTEXAS311985
OzonaTEXAS292022
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO262025
SlaughterTEXAS252021
Van HornTEXAS252025
JornadaNEW-MEXICO242025
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO242025
MesillaNEW-MEXICO222000
GirvinTEXAS222025
PinonNEW-MEXICO212024
Black GapTEXAS212025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO202025
QueenNEW-MEXICO202021
PresidioTEXAS192025
Salt FlatTEXAS192015
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS182009
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO171977
Coyanda DrawTEXAS172025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.