BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+47%Since 1969
56Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Ash-throated Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029
16Projected 2029 index
11–2195% range
±11.3%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025161121
2026161121
2027161121
2028161121
2029161121

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert.
LongfellowTEXAS422024
Bear MtnTEXAS382024
Devils R CynTEXAS352024
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO332024
CornudasTEXAS332018
ShafterTEXAS311985
GirvinTEXAS302024
OzonaTEXAS292022
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS282024
GageNEW-MEXICO272024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO272024
SlaughterTEXAS252021
PumpvilleTEXAS252024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO222000
Ft. StocktonTEXAS222024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO212023
JornadaNEW-MEXICO212024
PinonNEW-MEXICO212024
ComstockTEXAS212023
QueenNEW-MEXICO202021
Black GapTEXAS202023
Coyanda DrawTEXAS202024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO192024
Salt FlatTEXAS192015
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.