BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ash-throated Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161121
2026161121
2027161121
2028161121
2029161121

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LongfellowTEXAS422024
Bear MtnTEXAS382024
Devils R CynTEXAS352024
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO332024
CornudasTEXAS332018
ShafterTEXAS311985
GirvinTEXAS302024
OzonaTEXAS292022
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS282024
GageNEW-MEXICO272024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO272024
SlaughterTEXAS252021
PumpvilleTEXAS252024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO222000
Ft. StocktonTEXAS222024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO212023
JornadaNEW-MEXICO212024
PinonNEW-MEXICO212024
ComstockTEXAS212023
QueenNEW-MEXICO202021
Black GapTEXAS202023
Coyanda DrawTEXAS202024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO192024
Salt FlatTEXAS192015
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.