BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 430% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+430%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 430% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.44–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.92Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.44–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.44–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.870.401.3
20270.880.411.4
20280.890.421.4
20290.900.431.4
20300.920.441.4

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlbanyTEXAS142025
CampbelltonTEXAS82024
CottonwoodTEXAS82025
HobsonTEXAS72024
OlneyTEXAS72024
MegargelTEXAS52025
DuranTEXAS41999
DuncanOKLAHOMA31995
GrafordTEXAS32025
Whit Mtn.TEXAS32019
SchroederTEXAS21997
Lone OakTEXAS22019
Glen RoseTEXAS22017
HenriettaTEXAS22022
WalburgTEXAS22000
Three RiversTEXAS22025
YoakumTEXAS22023
BriteTEXAS22025
CreedmoreTEXAS22007
LockhartTEXAS12024
GauseTEXAS11988
OsageTEXAS12024
SeldenTEXAS12000
FanninTEXAS12022
ComancheTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.