BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 485% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+485%Since 1971
25Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 485% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.92 (95% range 0.44–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029
0.92Projected 2029 index
0.44–1.495% range
±28.1%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.870.391.3
20260.880.401.4
20270.890.421.4
20280.900.431.4
20290.920.441.4

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies.
AlbanyTEXAS172024
CampbelltonTEXAS82024
HobsonTEXAS72024
OlneyTEXAS72024
CottonwoodTEXAS52023
DuranTEXAS41999
MegargelTEXAS42024
DuncanOKLAHOMA31995
GrafordTEXAS32019
Whit Mtn.TEXAS32019
SchroederTEXAS21997
Lone OakTEXAS22019
Glen RoseTEXAS22017
HenriettaTEXAS22022
WalburgTEXAS22000
YoakumTEXAS22023
CreedmoreTEXAS22007
LockhartTEXAS12024
GauseTEXAS11988
OsageTEXAS12024
SeldenTEXAS12000
FanninTEXAS12022
Three RiversTEXAS12019
BriteTEXAS12024
ComancheTEXAS12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.