BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 730% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+730%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 730% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 121% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 3.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+121%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 121% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 3.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.73.312
20267.83.412
20277.93.512
20288.03.612
20298.13.713

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MontellTEXAS122024
RockspringTEXAS122023
HarperTEXAS92024
Indian MtnTEXAS82024
LeakeyTEXAS62024
San SabaTEXAS52024
Allen CreekTEXAS52024
UtopiaTEXAS42024
KempnerTEXAS32019
Dripping SpgTEXAS32024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS32024
BoerneTEXAS22024
AdamsvilleTEXAS22023
LeanderTEXAS22003
GeorgetownTEXAS11970
FitzhughTEXAS11983
Valley SpgsTEXAS12024
PidcokeTEXAS11999
Pidcoke 2TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.