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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 597% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+597%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 597% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 93% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 3.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 93% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 3.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.63.112
20277.73.212
20287.83.312
20297.93.412
20308.03.512

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarperTEXAS102025
San SabaTEXAS92025
LeakeyTEXAS82025
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS82025
RockspringTEXAS82025
Indian MtnTEXAS72025
MontellTEXAS72025
Allen CreekTEXAS72025
UtopiaTEXAS42024
KempnerTEXAS32019
BoerneTEXAS22024
AdamsvilleTEXAS22023
LeanderTEXAS22003
GeorgetownTEXAS11970
FitzhughTEXAS11983
Valley SpgsTEXAS12025
PidcokeTEXAS11999
Dripping SpgTEXAS12025
Pidcoke 2TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.