BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 730% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+730%Since 1971
19Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 730% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 121% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 3.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+121%Change by 2029
8.1Projected 2029 index
3.7–1395% range
±46.9%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20257.73.312
20267.83.412
20277.93.512
20288.03.612
20298.13.713

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau.
MontellTEXAS122024
RockspringTEXAS122023
HarperTEXAS92024
Indian MtnTEXAS82024
LeakeyTEXAS62024
San SabaTEXAS52024
Allen CreekTEXAS52024
UtopiaTEXAS42024
KempnerTEXAS32019
Dripping SpgTEXAS32024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS32024
BoerneTEXAS22024
AdamsvilleTEXAS22023
LeanderTEXAS22003
GeorgetownTEXAS11970
FitzhughTEXAS11983
Valley SpgsTEXAS12024
PidcokeTEXAS11999
Pidcoke 2TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.