BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

15×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.99–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.99–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.882.2
20261.60.912.2
20271.60.942.2
20281.60.962.3
20291.60.992.3

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EldoradoTEXAS312023
MertzonTEXAS282019
GirardTEXAS172023
SilverTEXAS162024
GraybackTEXAS152024
Shields 2TEXAS152023
ReedOKLAHOMA82019
RandlettOKLAHOMA72004
Pear ValleyTEXAS72024
HackberryTEXAS62024
RotanTEXAS62024
WallTEXAS62022
ClarendonTEXAS52024
Mertzon 2TEXAS52024
WilliamsTEXAS52024
WinchellTEXAS42024
HaskellTEXAS42024
Beaver CreekTEXAS42024
HollisOKLAHOMA22024
ChildressTEXAS22024
BookerTEXAS22010
ShieldsTEXAS22001
CharlieTEXAS22019
LakeviewTEXAS22024
AshlandKANSAS12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.